At the half way stage of the 2020/21 Premier League season, Aston Villa are trending up, enjoying their best start to a league campaign in over a decade.
Villa have accumulated 32 points from their first 19 fixtures, their best total since the 2009/10 season.
Ten wins have helped amass that tally. Villa only picked up eleven wins in the first half of their last three top flight seasons combined.
Whilst in those seasons, Villa were merely surviving, they are now thriving as they set their sights on a place in Europe.
Strengths
‘Balance’. It’s something Dean Smith emphasises with regularity and its presence has been pivotal in Villa’s rise.
At the start of the 2019/20 season, Villa were naïve. They went toe-to-toe with everyone they faced and whilst they scored plenty of goals, they shipped far too many.
After project restart, the formula was completely flipped, as Smith’s team tightened up at the back at the expense of threatening the opposition goal consistently.
This year, equilibrium has been achieved.
Smith’s team have netted 34 times thus far and conceded just 21. Per game, those marks are 3rd and 4th best in the division respectively.
Villa have never, in their history, scored this many goals in the first half of a 38-game season. The last time they conceded fewer goals was in 2009/10 (17).
Continuity has also been a big reason for Villa’s success.
Last season, the club completely overhauled the squad and this led to some pretty painful teething problems, as Smith struggled to settle on his best starting XI.
This year is the polar opposite, with eight players starting in every match where they weren’t suspended.
There is simply a different level of chemistry amongst the players this season, after spending most of last season getting to know each other, they are now playing in harmony.
Another strong area of Villa’s play has been their ability to hold on to leads.
Of the eleven games in which Villa have scored first, they have won ten. This falls in contrast to last season, when leads were relinquished at a ridiculously high rate.
Once Villa go in front, the game sets up perfectly for them due to their stingy defence and remarkable ability to counter-attack. This combination has allowed Villa to hold or even extend their advantage on a consistent basis this season.
Areas for improvement
In this abnormal season, anything seems possible… except West Brom staying up.
The league title, the Champions League and the Europa League appear to be up for grabs this year, but if Villa are to elbow their way into the top 7 at season’s end, they still have work to do.
Firstly, Villa need to be better situationally.
The prime example of this is games like Brighton at home and West Ham and Burnley away. These were three contests that Villa should have won, but came away with nothing.
Even if Villa had managed a draw in those games, which would have been the least they deserved and at the time would still have felt disappointing, their league position would obviously be even better than it already is.
Those dropped points add up over a season, so Villa can’t afford many more slip ups of that nature.
Secondly, they must learn how to recover from setbacks.
Villa’s recipe for success is clear. Get the first goal, defend well, strike on the counter. But this is a double-edged sword and when Villa concede first, they have rarely been able to recover.
In the seven games that the opposition have scored first, Villa have picked up just one point.
Having an effective Plan A is great, but great teams are able to play different ways and adapt when something goes wrong. Smith’s side must be more patient and have a clearer idea of how they will turn a result around.
Finally, Dean Smith needs to use his squad.
Only 13 players have made 10 or more appearances for Villa this season. Continuity is good, but there has to be some moderation so that Villa don’t run out of gas in the final stretch.
Smith has a tendency to not make any changes until very late in games. Something as simple as using substitutes more liberally could go a long way.
Player of the Half-Season
No surprise here. Jack Grealish has been Aston Villa’s top player by far, and arguably the top player in the Premier League.
Grealish leads the Premier League in shot creating actions (6.59) and goal creating actions (1) per 90 minutes. Only Kevin De Bruyne and Harry Kane have more assists.
Not only is Grealish Villa’s star, according to WhoScored, he’s also their most improved player.
Grealish has seen his WhoScored rating climb from 7.23 for the full 19/20 campaign to 7.84 for the current season. The biggest improvement by any Villa player.
Super Jack has already beaten his best combined goals and assists tally for a Premier League campaign. He has been involved in 15 goals through 19 games, compared to 14 for the whole of last season.
His expected assists per 90 minutes has more than doubled, going from 0.19 to 0.39 and he is also averaging an extra key pass per game (3.58 this season compared to 2.56 for 19/20).
Grealish’s dribble success rate has also risen by 7% despite attempting more dribbles per 90 minutes than he did last season.
Grealish is almost indisputably the best player to have donned a Villa shirt this century and is turning into a world class player.
Impact Signings
Johan Lange and the recruitment team at Villa Park were gangbusters in the summer transfer window, with every single one of the acquisitions having an immediate influence on the pitch.
In fact, according to WhoScored, Villa’s four best players (after Grealish) are Ollie Watkins, Matty Cash, Ross Barkley and Emi Martinez.
Watkins has contributed to 10 goals in 19 Premier League games. He has been as advertised, adding energy and quality as Villa’s main striker.
Cash leads the Premier League in interceptions and has brought attitude to Villa’s back line. Cash has regularly been up against top wingers and has always acquitted himself well.
Barkley has contributed 4 goals in 10 appearance and has injected an extra dose of skill into Villa’s midfield. Barkley’s connection with Grealish is effortless and frankly having both of them on the pitch feels unfair to the other team.
The risk Villa took on Martinez has come up aces, with Emi boasting 10 clean sheets and the 4th best save percentage in the Premier League. Emi’s penalty save on his debut set the tone for what was to come and it’s clear that he has the unwavering trust of his defenders.
Bertrand Traore’s WhoScored rating is only 12th best on the team, but in matches he has started it is 3rd best. Traore has now settled into the team, showing off his dazzling technical ability and improving his defensive contribution.
Every Day’s a School Day
A huge part of Villa’s success has been the improvement of the players who were at the club last season.
Grealish may be the most improved, but the progress has been universal.
Ezri Konsa and Anwar El Ghazi rank second best in terms of development, each increasing their WhoScored rating by 0.44 from last season.
Konsa may not be the biggest centre-back, but he plays taller than his height. He’s far from a liability in the air and he knows how to use his body to his advantage. Konsa has won 1.68 fouls per 90 minutes so far, more than any other Premier League defender.
He has also cut out the rookie mistakes from last year, improving his pass accuracy by more than 7% and not committing a single error leading to a goal.
El Ghazi is the definition of a confidence player and right now he has boatloads.
After showing unbelievable steel to score the winning penalty against Wolves, he hasn’t looked back, bagging 5 goals and surpassing his tally of 4 for the whole of last term.
El Ghazi has improved his execution and his effort, bettering his figures for shot accuracy, progressive passes, successful dribbles and tackles.
Matt Targett deserves a special mention. Whilst Targett has always been effective in attack, he was viewed as a weak link defensively last season. But the defensive side of his game has improved hugely in his second season at the club and he is no soft touch these days.
The Odd Man Out
According to WhoScored, only one Villa player has regressed this season; John McGinn.
His WhoScored rating has only decreased by 0.06, but McGinn’s numbers for shots, crosses, shot creating actions, tackles, pressures and successful dribbles are all down on last year. He is also seeing more of his passes blocked or intercepted.
Part of this can be explained by the arrival of Barkley. McGinn now plays deeper, leading to him having a less prominent role.
But the fact is that McGinn hasn’t been at his best so far this season, and with Morgan Sanson now breathing down his neck, he’ll need to up his game.
Looking Ahead
With many of the ‘Big 6’ struggling to get their act together, a window of opportunity has cracked open. Villa are more than capable of being the team to take advantage of that chance.
Whether they pull it off remains to be seen, but the rest of the season shapes up to be an exhilarating ride and regardless of the end result, will likely go down as the most successful campaign Villa have enjoyed in many years.
The Villa Ramble 
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