Why It Could Be a Quiet January for Aston Villa

Aston Villa have played their final game of the year and whilst for the world in general, this trip around the sun has been nothing short of a dumpster fire, it’s been one of immense progress for the Villains.

Dean Smith led his boyhood club to the Carabao Cup final and after a lengthy, pandemic-induced pause in the Premier League season, masterminded the great escape to keep Villa in the top flight.

Success on the pitch was followed by a statement of intent in the summer, with Smith’s affluent employers shelling out almost £75m on new talent as well as penning club captain Jack Grealish to a new long-term deal.

To top it off, Villa have made a mockery of any pundits who predicted a second season of relegation flirtation, finding themselves squarely in the hunt for European football as 2020 mercifully comes to a close.

When it comes to the beautiful game, the beginning of a new calendar year means one thing; the re-opening of the transfer market. But as fun as it is to contemplate the possibilities that these periods bring, it’s probably going to be a quiet one at Villa Park.

Villa have been active in the previous two winter windows, but only because their hand was forced. In January 2020, after suffering serious injuries to Wesley, Tom Heaton and John McGinn within the space of 11 days, Villa signed the underwhelming quartet of Ally Samatta, Borja Baston, Danny Drinkwater and Pepe Reina to plug the holes.

Go back to 2019 and it’s the same story; an injury to Orjan Nyland, coupled with Steve Bruce leaving the cupboard bare at centre-back before being sacked, coerced the team into acquiring Lovre Kalinic, Tyrone Mings and Kortney Hause. The other recruits in that window were Tom Carroll (remember him?) and Frederic Guilbert, who was to join the squad the following season.

The point being that in the last two years, only one of Villa’s nine January signings were (at the time) seen as a part of the future. With that in mind, due to the incredible job that the Villa hierarchy have done in building the squad over the last two summer windows, it’s unlikely that Villa will be aggressive this time around, because there are no glaring weaknesses on this team.

So, if indeed Villa aren’t active, don’t see it as a failure and don’t listen to the ‘grade’ given to their transfer window by pundits, because being busy doesn’t mean you’re doing anything worthwhile. Instead, see a lack of activity as an indication of the quality of the current group. Teams that are active in January are usually the ones that are struggling and/or panicking; for once, Villa are neither.

Another deterrent to Villa dipping their toe into the murky waters of the transfer market is that it’s notoriously tough to sign players in January, as clubs are reluctant to part with a quality player, knowing that they have limited time to replace them. Because of this, the majority of players available in January are sub-standard, overpriced, or both.

Case in point: Villa paid £8.5m for Ally Samatta because they were desperate for a striker. It was a move they had to make, after their other targets such as Olivier Giroud, Islam Slimani and Jay Rodriguez turned them down, but it didn’t represent value for money. Villa admitted this by taking a £3m bath as they shipped Samatta off to Fenerbahce in the following window. Part of sporting director Johan Lange’s M.O. is finding value for money, and the evidence suggests that it’s near-impossible to do in the January transfer window.

Dean Smith is predictably aligned with this thought process, telling Amazon after Villa’s 1-1 draw with Chelsea “unless the right thing comes along, we don’t have to jump into the market”.

The one obvious area that Villa could look to strengthen, if “the right thing” does come along, is left-back. Matt Targett is more than capable and is continually showing improvement, but his backup, Neil Taylor (or as Jack Grealish calls him “The Welsh Roberto Carlos”) provides no genuine competition. Taylor isn’t a Premier League player at this point in his career and doesn’t suit Villa’s style of play. If Targett were to miss any significant time through injury, having to insert Taylor into the line-up could seriously upset the efficiency of the team in attack and defence. Taylor’s contract expires at the end of the season, so this is an area that Villa will have to address sooner or later. It was surprising that Villa seemed to have limited interest in improving the position in the summer, but Sky Sports reported earlier this month that they are now keen to add a left-back “when they can.”

There have been reports from The Birmingham Mail that Ross Barkley is eager to make a permanent switch to Villa Park, after settling well as a loanee from Chelsea. While this is an option that Villa will surely explore, they have played more games without Barkley this season than with him, and the results have still been strong in his absence. Based on that, it feels unlikely that Lange & Co. will rush to break the bank for Barkley, with a permanent transfer more likely to happen at the end of the season.

There is also reported interest in Bournemouth’s Josh King once again, who can play as a striker or out wide, but this seems another unlikely transfer, with the forward areas already well stocked at Villa Park. Ollie Watkins has rapidly become instrumental to the team, Keinan Davis signed a contract extension in September and Villa won’t be giving up on Wesley yet either, whom they paid £22m for and is closing in on a return to action. With Ross Barkley’s return from injury also imminent, Jack Grealish will likely take up his usual position to the left of Watkins, leaving Bertrand Traore, Anwar El Ghazi and Trezeguet to battle it out for one remaining starting spot on the right wing. It’s always nice to have a shiny new toy to play with, but Dean Smith currently has plenty of weapons at his disposal.

It’s fitting that after the most unusual of years, Aston Villa fans too are learning to live in the new normal; supporting a team that has a plan on and off the pitch, after flying by the seat of its pants for the last decade. So don’t be disheartened if there are no new arrivals in the upcoming transfer window, and if any moves are made, you can trust that they will be calculated and considered, with the full, unified support of Dean Smith, Johan Lange and all the decision makers at Villa Park.