Aston Villa were criticised by the fans for not going all out to attain their top targets last season, settling for cheaper alternatives instead. They cannot be accused of the same crimes this summer, as after many weeks of protracted and frustrating negotiations, Villa, in the words of Ollie Watkins himself “finally” captured the signing of their top transfer target.
Profile
Position: Striker
Secondary position: Winger.
Age: 24.
Height: 5’10.
Place of birth: Torquay, England.
Previous clubs: Brentford, Exeter City.
Injury history: No significant injuries
Forget About the Price Tag
The reported transfer fee has raised a few eyebrows, but there are plenty of reasons why Aston Villa should have no qualms making Watkins their club-record signing.
First and foremost, Watkins fits the profile of what Villa are looking for in terms of age and how he projects to improve, as his career trajectory has continued to trend upwards. After contributing 30 combined goals and assists in his first two seasons with Brentford as a winger, Watkins made the transition to striker – the position he had played at his previous club, Exeter – and flourished, as his 26 goals (none of which were penalties) and 3 assists helped to propel Brentford to within a whisker of promotion to the Premier League, as well as earning him the Championship Player of the Year award. Watkins’ tallies for goals and assists are the exact same numbers that Tammy Abraham amassed whilst on loan at Aston Villa, and if you had asked any Villa fan if they would pay £30m for Tammy Abraham a year ago, they would have snapped your hand off.
| Season | Goals | xG | Difference |
| 19/20 | 26 | 22.32 | 3.68 |
| 18/19 | 10 | 8.14 | 1.86 |
| 17/18 | 10 | 14.22 | (4.22) |
| Totals | 46 | 44.68 | 1.32 |
Watkins has improved his goals/xG differential each of the last three years, indicating a continual improvement in his finishing.
Watkins and fellow new recruit Matty Cash have a few things in common. They both arrived from the Championship, both changed positions last season and are both able to play in multiple roles. The last point is another factor that increases Watkins’ value to Villa. Striker and winger were arguably the biggest areas of weakness for Dean Smith’s side in the 2019/20 season, so the fact that Watkins can play in either spot will be a big asset and will also make Villa’s line-up less predictable from week to week, as Smith will have the option of using Watkins as the lone striker, out wide or as part of a front two. Watkins will add a much-needed injection of pace to Villa’s attack as well.
Dean Smith’s history with Watkins – Smith signed him from Exeter in 2017 – has undoubtedly played a role in Villa’s desire to bring him in, and the feeling is apparently mutual, as reports have suggested that Watkins was keen to link up with Smith once again. Villa will hope to reap the rewards of Watkins’ familiarity with the gaffer, as they need their new forward to settle in quickly and produce. There has been a sense of déjà vu for Villa fans this summer, feeling that targets have not been acquired in a timely enough manner, which was a problem last year as the boatload of new signings took a while to adjust to life at Villa Park. When it comes to Watkins however, this should not be as much of an issue.
An important point to remember is that Villa were far from the only club interested in Ollie Watkins, with multiple Premier League rivals challenging for his signature, including Sheffield United, Crystal Palace, West Bromwich Albion, and at the eleventh hour, Tottenham Hotspur. The transfer market is a market like any other, meaning it is affected by supply and demand. There are only so many strikers in Europe with Watkins’ combination of production, upside and versatility who are also heading into the prime of their career. When you consider all the factors driving up Watkins’ price tag, not to mention the fact that Midlands rivals Wolves have just parted with £35m for an 18-year-old with 1 league start, Villa have hardly been fleeced.
The transfer market has exploded in recent years, with the capture of Watkins meaning that five of Villa’s six most expensive signings in club history have been purchased in the last three transfer windows. With that in mind, it’s really never worth worrying about the transfer fee for a player (within reason) because if they play well, people won’t care how much they cost, and if they play badly, people will say too much was paid, no matter what the price was. This is even more true when it comes to add-ons, as if the add-ons are eventually paid – providing they are performance based – that will mean the player has been a success, and no-one will care about the extra few million pounds being spent.
Stats
- Ollie Watkins graded as WhoScored’s 7th best Championship player in 2019/20, 4th best among strikers.
- Watkins scored 8 headers in 2019/20, 2nd most in the Championship.
- He also converted 21.49% of his shots into goals, placing him in the top 18% of Championship forwards in that regard.
- Despite only having 3 assists, Watkins’ expected assists was 6.43, more than any other Championship forward.
Making the Step Up
For all the things there are to love about Ollie Watkins and his potential, he is not guaranteed to succeed at Villa Park. Watkins will have to adjust to a higher level of competition than he is used to, coming up against Premier League calibre defenders and goalkeepers, and handle the pressure that comes with playing for – and being expected to provide goals for – a club of Aston Villa’s stature.
Whilst it is true that Dean Smith shares the same football philosophies as those implemented at Brentford, his former club are much further along in their programme than Villa who are very much still building. Brentford were a well-oiled goalscoring machine in 2019/20 and it is fair to say that Villa’s style of play for much of the season did not closely resemble that of The Bees.
So much of what makes a player successful or unsuccessful at a club is the environment they are surrounded by, and this will be no different for Watkins. He scored most of his goals last season from around the penalty spot and inside the 6-yard box, and averaged only 2.27 shots per 90 minutes, so it will be imperative that Watkins receives quality service. Fortunately, only five Premier League teams attempted more crosses than Villa last season and the hope will be that Watkins possesses the intelligence to put himself in position to get on the end of those deliveries. Playing with Jack Grealish; creator of the 2nd most chances in the Premier League for the 2019/20 season, will not hurt either.
Football is a game of fine lines and this transfer is evidence of that; if Brentford had seen off Fulham in the Championship Playoff Final, a move for Watkins would not have been possible. Aston Villa’s recruitment team grabbed their chance with both hands, securing the most exciting new signing in recent years by making Ollie Watkins a Villain.
The Villa Ramble 
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