Various reports have intimated that Aston Villa are aiming to sign two new strikers during the transfer window, with their top targets reported to be Ollie Watkins and – prior to his move to Newcastle – Callum Wilson. Negotiations with Brentford are slow moving, much to the frustration of the Villa hierarchy (not to mention the fans), but there remains a sense that they will get their man eventually. Watkins is an ascending, high-upside player, but is inexperienced in the top tier of English football, just like Villa’s current senior strikers, who had well-documented issues finding the net in 2019/20. With this in mind, it’s perhaps not a surprise that Villa want to hedge their bets by adding a trusty veteran to their forward line. Villa’s interest in Wilson was strong, as they engaged in a bidding war with Newcastle United which escalated to a £21m bid from Villa, only to bow out after being told that Wilson favoured a move to St. James Park.
It’s no secret that reliable Premier League strikers don’t grow on trees, and this is a big reason why transfer fees are inflated for players with any modicum of production in England’s top division. Wilson may be a success for Newcastle, but a £21m fee, coupled with a 4-year contract, for a striker who scored 8 league goals last season, turns 29 during the upcoming campaign and has ruptured ligaments in both knees on his injury portfolio, is enough to make your eyes water.
If Villa are serious about adding a seasoned striker to their ranks though, Josh King, another Bournemouth forward, represents their best and most realistic option.
The Norwegian forward began his English football career with Manchester United’s youth team in 2008 before taking the scenic route to his first Premier League appearance with Bournemouth seven years later. King has spent the last five years on the South Coast – his longest spell with any club so far – and in that time has racked up 48 goals in 161 Premier League appearances, which averages out to a goal every 3.35 games. Extrapolate those numbers over a 38-game Premier League campaign and it equates to an average of 11.34 goals per season, which is robust, if unspectacular production. King has a nice blend of pace and size, standing at 5’11, and has the ability to play anywhere along the forward line, which could be extremely valuable to an Aston Villa team thin on the ground in wide areas.
| Player | Age | Games per PL goal | Games per PL assist | Games per PL goal contribution | Avg WhoScored rating | Goals to xG differential | Goals to xG differential per 90 |
| Callum Wilson | 28 | 3.15 | 10.50 | 2.42 | 6.61 | (1.03) | (0.01) |
| Joshua King | 28 | 3.35 | 11.50 | 2.60 | 6.88 | 6.72 | 0.05 |
When you take a further gaze at the numbers that King has put up in his five seasons with The Cherries, they compare similarly or even favourably to those of Callum Wilson during the same period. As is shown above, Wilson claims a narrow victory in terms of games per goal contribution, but King absolutely stands out in terms of goals-to-expected goals differential, which is an indicator of a player’s ability to convert their chances and thus, how good of a finisher they are. In this respect, King has scored almost 7 more goals than he was expected to over the course of his Premier League career, whereas Wilson has netted 1 less goal than he should have. King has also scored 10 or more goals in a Premier League season on more occassions than Wilson, and boasts a higher grade from WhoScored across his Premier League career, which considers all aspects of his game.
Joshua King ranks in the top 34% of Premier League striker in goals-to-expected goals differential for the 2019/20 season, indicating that he is an above average finisher. Callum Wilson on the other hand, falls outside the top 60%, indicating that he is a below average finisher and only marginally better than the much-maligned Wesley and Ally Samatta.
As the old saying goes, the best ability is availability, and King trumps Wilson in that area by a long way. King has missed 14 games due to injury in the last 5 years, compared to a whopping 63 missed by Wilson. King is just a month older than Wilson as well.
When I began writing this piece, I penned that a move for King seemed unlikely, considering Villa looked to be far more interested in his former teammate, Wilson. However, in the 24 hours since I typed those words, John Percy of The Telegraph has reported that Villa have lodged a £16m bid for King. Manchester United attempted to bring their former youth product back to Old Trafford during their injury crisis in January, seeing a £20m bid rejected, but Bournemouth have since lost some leverage over the price they can slap on King. They can no longer provide their forward with Premier League football and a biproduct of that is a need to reduce the wage bill. King is also in the final year of his contract, meaning it’s the last chance for Bournemouth to cash in.
A report circled back in June that four of the ‘Big 6’ teams were chasing King, but as we are now in September and King has not moved, it is fair to assume that the interest from those nameless clubs has cooled. Villa can’t offer King European football, but they can offer him games against the ‘Big 6’ rather than Wycombe Wanderers, as well as the opportunity to play for a more prestigious club than the one he is currently employed by, and in front of 40,000 fans, COVID-19 permitting.
Aston Villa were unsuccessful in their pursuit of Callum Wilson, but it might well prove be a blessing in disguise, as his former strike partner could offer Villa a superior, less injury prone and maybe even a cheaper solution.
The Villa Ramble 
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