Aston Villa haven’t beaten Manchester United at home since 1995, and with Erik ten Hag’s side rolling into Villa Park unbeaten in their last nine games, one might expect a familiar outcome on Sunday.
But while United appear to have turned a corner under their new manager, there are still weaknesses which could allow Villa to finally snap their nearly-30-year winless streak.
The 4-0 drubbing Villa received from Newcastle United last week served as a reminder of how far the club still has to go, but the good news is, Manchester United aren’t as good as Newcastle United.
They may only be a point below Newcastle in the Premier League table, sitting in 5th place with a game in hand, but the underlying data shows Man United to be a very ordinary team.
According to expected points, which uses expected goals for and against to determine how many points a team should have based on the chances they’ve created and surrendered, Manchester United would be 16th in the Premier League table. Sixteenth!
That’s a pretty ridiculous over-performance, and unless United improve (and to be fair, they probably will as ten Hag continues to implement his system), their recent results seem unsustainable. However, ten Hag does deserve credit for turning their form around after a poor start.
The Dutchman could have stubbornly clung to his style of play, results be damned, but instead he has taken a more pragmatic approach and embraced some of the transitional football his players were used to under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
The long-term goal will still be for United to become a possession-based team, like most of Europe’s elite sides, but it now appears ten Hag has accepted this will be a slower transition than he would’ve first envisaged.
What this has led to though, is a Manchester United team which isn’t particularly inspiring, and one that can be tactically frustrated and exploited. This, Villa will attempt to do in their first match under Unai Emery on Sunday.
Funnily enough, Newcastle provided a template of how this can be done during their recent 0-0 draw with Man United. The key to Newcastle’s success was intensity, especially in how they pressed and suffocated Man United’s defence.
Man United still aren’t very good at playing out from the back yet, and Newcastle’s relentless press caused them to frequently surrender possession. Brentford gave United serious problems with an aggressive press in their 4-0 win earlier this season, and Villa could force ten Hag’s team into mistakes if they adopt a similar approach.
If Villa’s press is beaten, which will happen on occasion, Emery’s side should do everything they can to fall back into a low block and get as many players behind the ball as possible. This is because Manchester United’s other problem has been breaking teams down.
Their lack of ability to pick through defences has resulted in a lot of shots from distance (the most in the league from outside the box, in fact), which is generally not an especially effective way to score goals. United are 19th in expected goals per shot in the Premier League this season.
Bruno Fernandes’ suspension could loom large in that regard, as United will be missing one of its more creative players. His absence may also restrict Manchester United’s prospects of Villa in the same way they have hurt other teams this season: through counter attacks.
A theme of United’s goals this season has been capitalising on their opponents’ errors in midfield and springing forward quickly with one or two quality passes from the likes of Fernandes and Christian Eriksen to set Marcus Rashford, Cristiano Ronaldo or Antony through on goal.
Of course, ten Hag could move Eriksen into a more advanced midfield role to replicate Fernandes’ quality, but that would likely mean bringing Fred into the starting line-up, and while he’s fine, United’s ability to execute precise counter attacks could still be somewhat compromised.
To further reduce the odds of being hit on the break, Emery should ensure the central midfielders he selects for Sunday’s game are the ones least likely to cheaply squander possession. That would be some combination of Boubacar Kamara (if he’s available), Douglas Luiz, Jacob Ramsey and Leander Dendoncker.
Beyond forcing them into mistakes with an effective high press, Villa could look to cause problems for United by flipping the script and counter attacking into the spaces they tend to leave behind when committing bodies forward in an attempt to break down a low block.
Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United may have become much more competitive in their games, and they’ve certainly been picking up results at an impressive clip, but there isn’t much they do well right now, and there are answers for the tactical questions they pose.
If Villa can harness the energy which is sure to be coursing around Villa Park in anticipation for the Emery era and produce a high energy and tactically diligent performance featuring an effective high press and swift counter attacks, they might just end the club’s long wait for a victory over Man United.
The Villa Ramble 
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