What will Ludwig Augustinsson bring to Aston Villa?

Aston Villa are on the verge of adding some cover at the left-back position in the shape of Sevilla’s Ludwig Augustinsson.

The club has been linked to a string of younger defenders throughout the summer, with moves for the likes of Aaron Hickey, Calvin Bassey and more recently, Sergio Gomez, ultimately not coming to fruition.

It appears Villa have therefore opted for a more temporary solution, with Augustinsson expected to join on a season-long loan with an option to buy.

At 28 years old, Augustinsson lacks the ceiling of a Hickey, Bassey or Gomez, but he has proven to be a more than capable defender in two major European leagues and should provide strong cover for Lucas Digne.

Villa’s sporting director Johan Lange has history with Augustinsson, having signed him for Copenhagen and then sold him on to Werder Bremen, and this relationship likely played a significant role in acquiring the Swedish defender.

But what exactly will Augustinsson bring to Villa? A look at the numbers paints the picture of a solid all-around left-back.

Augustinsson has spent just a year at Sevilla, and his 2021/22 campaign was viewed as a disappointing one, yet he still scored favourably in plenty of statistical areas.

The left-back scored above the 50^th percentile (i.e., above average) in 13 of the 20 metrics which comprise FBref’s scouting report, which compares players to their positional peers in the top five European leagues over the previous 365 days.

He only graded poorly in one out of five defensive metrics, ranking in the 17^th percentile for interceptions, meanwhile he excelled in clearances (93^rd) and aerials won (95^th). Augustinsson’s 5’11 stature and ability in the air should help him adapt to the physicality of the Premier League.

While there could be some concern over his poor scores in attacking metrics such as progressive passes (3^rd percentile), progressive carries (28^th) and dribbles completed (2^nd), these may not truly be cause for alarm.

For example, Lucas Digne only scores in the 13^th percentile for dribbles completed and the 35^th for progressive carries, and he’s not exactly a bad player.

FBref provides a useful list of ‘similar players’, which throws up the closest statistical comparisons for a particular player. As it turns out, there are numerous current Premier League defenders who are similar to Augustinsson.

Augustinsson’s closest statistical comparison is Takehiro Tomiyasu, and his second-closest is Vladimir Coufal. The top 10 also includes Cesar Azpilicueta, Alex Telles, Lucas Digne and Timothy Castagne.

A different set of statistics from Augustinsson’s final year at Werder Bremen, which earned him the move to Sevilla, displays how effective he can be both in defence and attack.

According to Wyscout, among 21 Bundesliga left-backs who played at least half of the matches in the 2020/21 season, Augustinsson ranked per 90 minutes:

• 1^st in expected assists.
• 1^st in crosses to the six-yard box.
• 2^nd in shot assists.
• 3^rd in defensive duel win rate.
• 3^rd in crosses attempted and 4^th in accuracy.
• 4^th in shots blocked.
• 4^th in key passes.

Another string to Augustinsson’s bow is that he has previously been a free kick and corner taker.

His signing, coupled with the return of Ashley Young, would appear to mean the writing is on the wall for Frederic Guilbert, whose contract is up in 2023.

Augustinsson’s arrival means Young can be used exclusively for cover on his more natural right side, and it may also allow young defenders Kaine Kesler-Hayden and Ben Chrisene to go out on loan and get valuable minutes as they continue their development.

In a year’s time, when the Swede’s loan period is over, Villa will be able to assess the progress of Chrisene in particular and make a decision on whether or not to sign Augustinsson permanently.

This signing is an inexpensive and prudent one from Villa which plugs a gap in the short term and allows for flexibility in the future.