Aston Villa’s third summer signing is imminent, with the club confirming an agreement has been reached with Sevilla for Brazilian centre-back Diego Carlos.
While the terms are officially undisclosed, reports have stated the transfer fee to be around £26million for the 29-year-old, who should provide fierce competition for an immediate place in the heart of Villa’s defence.
This appears to be smart business from Villa, with Sevilla reportedly wanting £38million for him when Newcastle United inquired in January.
But what will Carlos bring to Villa’s defence? Let’s examine his strengths and weaknesses.
Carlos is an athletic centre back with both pace and strength. While he is right-footed, he has the versatility to play on the left side of defence as well.
His surface level stats are a tad underwhelming. Carlos was the 19th best La Liga centre-back out of 38 players with at least 20 appearances in 2020/21, according to WhoScored, and 18th out of 39 the previous year.
He did rank 7th out of 38 in the 2019/20 season, and also posted strong scores during his time with Nantes in Ligue 1.
Defensive ability
A look at his defensive statistics over the last 365 days compared to his positional peers in the top five European leagues also leaves much to be desired. Carlos didn’t rank higher than the 54th percentile in any metric according to FBref.com. He was in the bottom 12 percent for pressures and the bottom 14 percent for interceptions.
However, his numbers may be impacted by the fact he wasn’t particularly busy at Sevilla. A deeper look at his defensive ability paints a better picture of what Villa could be getting.
Carlos ranked 7th among La Liga centre-backs in defensive duels win rate, and 3rd in shots blocked per 90 minutes, when adjusted for how many shots each team faced.
His interception numbers also look much better when adjusted for possession. Carlos ranked 14th for possession-adjusted interceptions, which isn’t elite, but is significantly superior to his FBref ranking.
Carlos also ranked 6th among La Liga centre-backs in aerial duels win rate, despite not being a huge centre-back at 6’1’. However, the Premier League could provide a stiffer physical test than La Liga.
In possession
One of Carlos’s more attractive qualities is his comfortability on the ball, something which Villa have lacked from their centre-backs at times.
Carlos received the 4th most passes among La Liga centre-backs last season, while also ranking in the 83rd percentile for pass attempts and the 74th percentile in pass completion percentage among those in the top five leagues.
Those numbers are more impressive when you consider he also ranked 8th among La Liga centre-backs in number of forward passes. This is not a player who will simply pass the ball to his centre-back partner and breathe a sigh of relief, Carlos is looking to make things happen.
His average long pass length was higher than any other La Liga centre-back, showing Carlos’s penchant for trying the home run pass in an attempt to create chances for attackers.
Dribbling the ball is not an area in which Carlos excels, ranking 34th in La Liga in both dribble attempts and success rate. But this is not something Villa will likely ask him to do anyway, and it is not a vital skill. Gerard Pique was WhoScored’s best La Liga centre-back last season, and his dribbling numbers were also unimpressive.
Set-piece weapon
Villa’s set-piece coach Austin MacPhee may well be excited at the arrival of Carlos, as he has served as a regular threat in the opposition penalty area in his time at Sevilla.
Carlos scored three goals for Sevilla last season and ranked in the 76th percentile for non-penalty goals among centre-backs in the top five leagues. He was also in the 77th percentile for non-penalty xG and the 90th percentile for shots.
Discipline
An area of Carlos’s game which could be criticised is his discipline. While he is generally a good defender and proficient in possession, he is prone to moments of madness.
During Sevilla’s successful Europa League run in 2019/20, Carlos gave away a penalty in the quarter-final, semi-final and final. No-one in La Liga had more errors leading to a shot last season than his four.
However, these stats are generally overrated. Four is really not a high number over the course of a full season and Carlos only had one such error in the 2020/21 season.
He ranked 17th among La Liga centre-backs in fouls committed last season, which is not egregious by any means, and 33rd in yellow cards per 90 minutes, although he did have one red card.
It seems these instances of hot-headedness are not a consistent issue; but they will pop up from time to time.
In signing Diego Carlos, Villa have managed to attract another player who would have otherwise been playing in the Champions League next season, following Boubacar Kamara.
The club has taken a decisive and ruthless approach to the transfer window so far, and this acquisition will put Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa on notice, with their spot in the team now under serious threat.
The Villa Ramble 
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