Why Aston Villa don’t need a Striker this Summer

The clamour from Aston Villa fans for a new striker has become somewhat of a yearly tradition.

For the most part, those wishes have been granted, with at least one forward arriving at Villa Park via transfer or loan in each of the last six seasons.

Ten men joined the club during that period, from Rudy Gestede and Ross McCormack to Lewis Grabban and Tammy Abraham.

But this summer, for the first time in over a decade, Villa don’t need to address the centre-forward position.

The key reason for this is that Ollie Watkins has been an unmitigated success in claret and blue since his arrival from Brentford for a club record fee.

Watkins started 37 games in his rookie Premier League season, scoring 14 goals and assisting five more, whilst also bringing energy and enthusiasm to Villa’s front line.

Yes, after years of trying to replace Christian Benteke, the answer finally emerged during Watkins’ impressive debut campaign.

That means any striker targeted this summer would have to be happy knowing they’d be going straight onto the bench, ruling out anyone with the quality of fan favourite Abraham for example.

And Johan Lange need not delve into the transfer market just to sign a backup. Wesley and Keinan Davis are capable of filling that role.

Wesley may have only netted five goals in 21 Premier League appearances in the 2019/20 season, but he played in a much poorer team than the one Watkins did last year.

Last season’s Villa side created more big chances, expected goals and had more possession on average than the 2019/20 squad, as well as playing more (and more accurate) passes to the final third.

Watkins had more touches in the penalty area per 90 minutes (4.66) than Wesley as well (3.22).

Obviously, these stats are partially influenced by the striker’s ability to be in the right position, but even as a pure finisher, Wesley stacks up well with Watkins.

The Brazilian underachieved his xG in 2019/20 by an average of 0.07 per 90 minutes, the exact same number as Ollie Watkins recorded in 2020/21

Wesley’s goal conversion rate of 15.63% was actually marginally better than Watkins’ 15.39%, indicating the pair have a similar ability to finish their chances.

The biggest X-factor here is whether Wesley will ever be the same player he once was or be able to reach his potential following the horrendous injury he suffered.

But providing his recovery is a full one, with the improved service on offer these days from his surrounding talent, Wesley could absolutely be a good enough understudy to Watkins.

Then there’s Davis, who of course isn’t a prolific goal scorer, with just one in 33 Premier League appearances over the last two seasons, although only five of those were starts.

However, he still provides a nice third option for Dean Smith and is a nuisance for opposition defenders every time he plays, with his physical presence and hold up play.

With Villa’s recruitment team always on the look out for a potential value signing, and with the club hoping to push for Europe this season, there will be a temptation to take a ruthless approach and be aggressive about upgrading the striker position.

But before casting Wesley and Davis off, Villa would be better served giving Dean Smith one more year to assess them and determine whether they are capable backups for Watkins.