In many ways, the first three months of Aston Villa’s 2019/2020 season have served as a Rorschach Test. There have been positives and negatives and how you ultimately view the first twelve games depends on your outlook.
Villa have faced more shots than any other team in the Premier League, yet most observers would tell you they’ve been impressed with Villa’s new-look back four and how quickly they’ve gelled.
Wesley and El Ghazi certainly have their critics, but the attack which they have spearheaded has only been outscored by five other clubs.
When I peer into the claret and blue inkblots as Villa head out of the international break, the area that needs the most attention, is striking the right balance in a midfield that has so far been a revolving door.
Mercurial Nakamba
After an impressive start to his Villa career, Nakamba has struggled in recent weeks with his passing accuracy.
The Zimbabwean completed 60% of his forward passes against Wolves (from only 5 attempts) and just 36% (thirty six!) found the mark against Liverpool… that’s… sub-optimal. Marv’s average forward pass accuracy in domestic football before joining Villa was 76%, which is a decent amount higher than his 68.8% average since arriving in England, so it’s possible that the wayward passes are a product of adjusting to the pace and unforgiving nature of the Premier League.
Forward Pass Accuracy- Aston Villa Midfielders (Premier League Only)
- Conor Hourihane 80.6%
- Jack Grealish 80.4%
- Douglas Luiz 76%
- John McGinn 73.2%
- Marvelous Nakamba 68.8%
It’s a double-edged sword when it come to Marvelous, because he suits fast-paced games more than Douglas Luiz due to his more lively and urgent nature, whereas Luiz tends to play the game at his own speed, but he also exacerbates the frantic nature of those contests by giving the ball away in dangerous areas.
Nakamba reminds me somewhat of Idrissa Gueye during the Senegalese midfielder’s brief stint at Villa Park. Gueye displayed similar traits of an ability to recover the ball at an impressive rate and inconsistency in terms of ball retention, Nakamba and Gueye were also the same age when they were signed. Gueye’s career since leaving B6 acts as a lesson in how a player can improve once they have adapted to a higher level of competition, Nakamba has shown enough to suggest he is good enough for the Premier League, but he must become more consistent for Dean Smith to be able to rely him week in, week out.
Conor the Friendly Ghost
Conor Hourihane is a divisive figure for Villa fans. Some see a reliable weapon that provides goals and assists; some would point to the other parts of his game and say he doesn’t do enough.
The truth is this: A good or bad Conor Hourihane game is solely decided by whether or not he creates a goal, because he’s not going to give you much of anything else. He is not the best passer on the team, the most mobile, or the best tackler. There are stretches of matches where it’s actually difficult to find him on the pitch and in general, he is averse to taking action. These are not ideal traits for a central midfielder. The table below shows Hourihane’s lack of involvement compared to his midfield teammates.
| Player | Actions | Passes | Duels | Recoveries | Dribbles | Att duels | Def duels | Rec’d passes |
| Grealish | 72.79 | 37.7 | 20.49 | 4.86 | 5.52 | 12.16 | 5.05 | 22.83 |
| Luiz | 63.04 | 36.24 | 17.07 | 7.49 | 1.35 | 4.79 | 7.64 | 22.76 |
| McGinn | 62.05 | 24.88 | 24.34 | 5.53 | 5.68 | 12.06 | 6.76 | 16.59 |
| Nakamba | 59.06 | 33.64 | 16.7 | 9.45 | 0.98 | 3.07 | 9.7 | 20.26 |
| Hourihane | 55.99 | 29.38 | 12.26 | 4.86 | 1.39 | 3.24 | 6.02 | 21.75 |
Even in the Championship, Hourihane was incredibly frustrating to watch. He would often do very little for 80 minutes only to then pop up with a goal or an assist. In the second tier, this was fine, because the tandem of Grealish and McGinn dominated most opponents and meant Villa could afford to accommodate Hourihane’s lack of input from open play, trusting he would pull his weight in other ways.
It should not be understated that scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in football and Hourihane’s ability to contribute in that area is valuable. In the Premier League though, Villa can’t afford to carry Hourihane, and the Irish international can’t be expected to produce as many goals.
Hourihane’s career has taken him up the football league ladder, through all four divisions. This is a man who has absolutely maximised his abilities and has found his niche. However, with Villa back at English football’s top table, his role is now best suited to coming off the bench when a goal is needed.
Healthy Henri Deserves a Chance
In their upcoming clash with Newcastle, Villa are likely to have more of the ball more than they have had all season. With Steve Bruce’s side averaging just 34.79% possession so far – the lowest in the Premier League – it is highly likely that The Toon Army will park the bus. This means that creating chances will be a challenge and Dean Smith’s side will need to be patient.
In limited action against inferior opposition, Henri Lansbury has shown willingness and an ability to unlock the door of a defence with a well-placed pass. With that in mind, Monday night could be the ideal time to give Lansbury his first Premier League start of the season, replacing Marvelous Nakamba in a game where Villa will need players who are constructive with the ball more than ones who flourish in winning it back.
A midfield trio of Lansbury, McGinn and Douglas Luiz may give Villa the best chance of creating goal scoring opportunities against a stubborn Newcastle side.
Finding the right midfield combination has been a prevalent issue during and pre-dating Smith’s tenure, and the necessary move of Jack Grealish to an inside left position has added another complication. With John McGinn the centrepiece of Villa’s engine room, the rest of the puzzle remains very much unsolved with almost a third of the season in the rear-view mirror.
Mark Oldacres
The Villa Ramble 
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